Let's face it: The Grammy's don't have a very solid track record when it comes to hip-hop. The hip-hop world is still recovering from its collective aneurysm of 2014, when Macklemore's The Heist beat out Kendrick Lamar's good kid, m.A.A.d city for Best Rap Album, and that was hardly its first misstep. And this year, before the festivities even started, there's been a huge backlash against the nominations. No YG for Best Rap Album? Pharrell and DJ Mustard locked out of the Producer Of The Year category? What is going on here?

So while we all hold our collective breath and wait to see if Iggy Azalea will beat out ScHoolboy Q, Common, Eminem, Childish Gambino and Wiz Khalifa for Best Rap Album, XXL tried to be real about it and figure out which nominee is most likely to take home a Grammy for each of hip-hop's top categories. They may not be our picks, but as the Grammys have proved over the years, it's not necessarily what the people think that wins out in the end. So without further ado, here is what we think the winners will be on Sunday night. Until then, the speculation continues. —XXL Staff

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RECORD OF THE YEAR

"Fancy"
Iggy Azalea Featuring Charli XCX
The New Classic
Def Jam Recordings

"Chandelier"
Sia
1000 Forms Of Fear
RCA Records / Monkey Puzzle Records

"Stay With Me" (Darkchild Version)
Sam Smith
Capitol Records

"Shake It Off"
Taylor Swift
Big Machine Records

"All About That Bass"
Meghan Trainor
Epic Records

XXL's Pick: "Stay With Me," Sam Smith (Darkchild version)

The most hotly-contested pick of the bunch, each track got at least one vote, but Sam Smith won out in the end.

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ALBUM OF THE YEAR

Beck
Morning Phase

Beyoncé
Beyoncé

Ed Sheeran
X

Sam Smith
In The Lonely Hour

Pharrell Williams
Girl

XXL's Pick: Beyoncé, Beyoncé

Considering Queen Bey stopped the industry in its tracks with the surprise release of this album, her best in years, this one seems like it could be a lock.

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BEST NEW ARTIST

Iggy Azalea

Bastille

Brandy Clark

Haim

Sam Smith

XXL's Pick: Sam Smith

Iggy had a huge year by any standard, but Sam Smith was the one who came seemingly out of nowhere to become the darling of the mainstream music industry. Could be a toss up, but the staff believes Smith will take home the Grammy.

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BEST POP SOLO PERFORMANCE

"All Of Me" (Live)
John Legend
Columbia Records

"Chandelier"
Sia
1000 Forms Of Fear
RCA Records / Monkey Puzzle Records

"Stay With Me" (Darkchild Version)
Sam Smith
Capitol Records

"Shake It Off"
Taylor Swift
Big Machine Records

"Happy" (Live)
Pharrell Williams
Columbia Records

XXL's Pick: "Chandelier," Sia

Another category with a wide variety of answers, but Sia's massive hit and it's super-creative video seem like they could grab the Australian singer her first-ever Grammy Award.

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BEST POP DUO/GROUP PERFORMANCE

"Fancy"
Iggy Azalea Featuring Charli XCX
The New Classic
Def Jam Recordings

"A Sky Full Of Stars"
Coldplay
Ghost Stories
Atlantic/Parlophone

"Say Something"
A Great Big World With Christina Aguilera
Is There Anybody Out There?
Epic Records

"Bang Bang"
Jessie J, Ariana Grande & Nicki Minaj
Republic Records

"Dark Horse"
Katy Perry Featuring Juicy J
Capitol Records

XXL's Pick: "Fancy," Iggy Azalea and Charli XCX

"Dark Horse" was a massive hit, and we're rooting for Juicy J to add a Grammy to accompany his Oscar on his mantle, but "Fancy" was so ubiquitous this year that it seems a near-lock for this category.

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BEST R&B PERFORMANCE

"Drunk In Love"
Beyoncé Featuring Jay Z
Beyoncé
Columbia Records

"New Flame"
Chris Brown Featuring Usher & Rick Ross
X
RCA Records

"It’s Your World"
Jennifer Hudson Featuring R. Kelly
JHUD
RCA Records

"Like This"
Ledisi
The Truth
Verve

"Good Kisser"
Usher
RCA Records

XXL's Pick: "Drunk In Love," Beyonce featuring Jay Z

The best song should take home this category, and it's impossible to argue against "Drunk In Love." It's Beyoncé at her imperious, vocal-stretching best, and even with a mediocre Jay Z verse it's still a great track.

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BEST R&B SONG

"Drunk In Love"
Beyoncé Featuring Jay Z
Beyoncé
Columbia Records

"Good Kisser"
Usher
RCA Records

"New Flame"
Chris Brown Featuring Usher & Rick Ross
X
RCA Records

"Options" (Wolfjames Version)
Luke James Featuring Rick Ross
Island Records

"The Worst"
Jhené Aiko
Sail Out
Def Jam Recordings

XXL's Pick: "Drunk In Love," Beyoncé featuring Jay Z

The only unanimous selection among the staff. Last year may have been the coronation for Bey with her electrifying performance, but this year may be the one where her wins come at the podium.

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BEST URBAN CONTEMPORARY ALBUM

Sail Out
Jhené Aiko
Def Jam Recordings

Beyoncé
Beyoncé
Columbia Records

X
Chris Brown
RCA Records

Mali Is...
Mali Music
RCA Records / Bystorm Entertainment

Girl
Pharrell Williams
Columbia Records

XXL's Pick: Beyoncé, Beyoncé

Did we mention it feels like Beyoncé's year to shine? It's Beyoncé's year to shine.

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BEST RAP PERFORMANCE

"3005"
Childish Gambino
Because The Internet
Glassnote

"0 To 100 / The Catch Up"
Drake
Cash Money/Young Money

"Rap God"
Eminem
The Marshall Mathers LP 2
Aftermath

"i"
Kendrick Lamar
Top Dawg Entertainment/Interscope Records

"All I Need Is You"
Lecrae
Reach Records

XXL's Pick: "Rap God," Eminem

A tight race and hotly contested, but if we're talking about pure rapping performance then Eminem has to take this one home. The Grammys have loved him through the years, and it doesn't seem like the gravy train will stop this year.

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BEST RAP/SUNG COLLABORATION

"Blak Majik"
Common Featuring Jhené Aiko
Nobody’s Smiling
Def Jam Recordings

"The Monster"
Eminem Featuring Rihanna
The Marshall Mathers LP2
Aftermath

"Tuesday"
iLoveMakonnen Featuring Drake
OVO/Warner Bros.

"Studio"
Schoolboy Q Featuring BJ The Chicago Kid
Oxymoron
TDE/Interscope Records

"Bound 2"
Kanye West & Charlie Wilson
Yeezus
Def Jam Recordings

XXL's Pick: "The Monster," Eminem featuring Rihanna

Why change a winning formula? After the world-beating success of "Love The Way You Lie," Rihanna and Em had the magic in their hands and they recreated it with "The Monster." Shouts out to "Bound 2" as well, which gave "The Monster" a run for its money in our internal voting.

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BEST RAP SONG

"Anaconda"
Nicki Minaj
Cash Money/Young Money

"Bound 2"
Kanye West & Charlie Wilson
Yeezus
Def Jam Recordings

"i"
Kendrick Lamar
Top Dawg Entertainment/Interscope Records

"We Dem Boyz"
Wiz Khalifa
Blacc Hollywood
Rostrum/Atlantic

"0 To 100 / The Catch Up"
Drake
Cash Money/Young Money

XXL's Pick: "Bound 2"

Kanye's performing two songs, so the Grammys have to give him some love, right? This category seems like a toss up, but it feels like the Grammys will send this trophy 'Ye's way, if only to give us another reason to watch the ridiculous music video and its even more ridiculous spinoffs.

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BEST RAP ALBUM

The New Classic
Iggy Azalea
Def Jam Recordings

Because The Internet
Childish Gambino
Glassnote

Nobody’s Smiling
Common
Def Jam Recordings

The Marshall Mathers LP 2
Eminem
Aftermath

Oxymoron
Schoolboy Q
TDE/Interscope Records

Blacc Hollywood
Wiz Khalifa
Rostrum/Atlantic

XXL's Pick: Common, Nobody's Smiling

This is the one that is going to have people up in arms, particularly if the award goes to Iggy Azalea after last year's Macklemore-Kendrick brouhaha. But Common's album, with its plea to heal Chicago and its socially-conscious and politically-active lyrics, seems like it would catch the voters' ears as standing for something more than just an art form. It would be the safe pick, but someone will be upset no matter which way this one goes.

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BEST MUSIC VIDEO

"We Exist"
Arcade Fire
David Wilson, video director; Jason Baum, video producer
Capitol Records

"Turn Down For What"
DJ Snake & Lil Jon
Daniels, video directors; Judy Craig, Candice Ouaknine, Jonathan Wang & Bryan Younce, video producers
Columbia Records

"Chandelier"
Sia
Daniel Askill & Sia, video directors; Jennifer Heath, video producer
RCA Records / Monkey Puzzle Records

"Happy"
Pharrell Williams
We Are From LA, video director; Kathleen Heffernan, Roman Pichon Herrera, Jett Steiger & Cedric Troadec, video producers
Columbia Records

"The Golden Age"
Woodkid Featuring Max Richter
Chis Clayton & Yoann Lemoine, video directors; Roman Pichon Herrera, Christine Miller, Susan Porche & Annabel Rosier, video producers
Interscope

XXL's Pick: "Happy," Pharrell

This song was absolutely everywhere, and its video—all 24 hours of it—reflected that completely. There wasn't another video that so fully reflected the song's vision.